Ireland, Norway, and Spain to recognise Palestinian state next week

Today’s announcement by the Irish government is not a surprise - it has been mooted for months and was always a case of when, rather than if.

The three leaders of the coalition government briefed their cabinet colleagues yesterday with discussions centred around what recognition of a Palestinian state could mean for Ireland.

Ireland has been working particularly closely with Spain on this – the government had always said it wouldn’t be a solo run by Ireland and would happen in co-ordination with other EU countries.

Taoiseach Simon Harris, who took the top job last month, says it’s “never the wrong time to do the right thing”, adding that it has been Ireland’s long standing position that “a two state solution is the way to bring peace to the Middle-East”.

He believes the move to recognise the state of Palestine is a step towards this.

NICOLAS MAETERLINCK/BELGA MAG/AFPCopyright: NICOLAS MAETERLINCK/BELGA MAG/AFP

Missing from today's list of countries announcing a date for recognising a Palestinian state is Belgium, which on the face of it seems surprising.

For months, Belgian PM Alexander De Croo has worked closely with his Spanish counterpart on the war in Gaza. Last November they visited the Rafah crossing between Egypt and Gaza together and were both highly critical of Israel's military operation. Brussels was on Pedro Sánchez's itinerary last month when he sought to co-ordinate today's announcement.

Belgium's deputy prime minister, Petra De Sutter, says Belgium should now follow suit, but so far there are no concrete plans beyond discussing it in today's cabinet meeting. Not everyone in the ruling coalition is keen on the idea and with elections less than three weeks away, both federal and European, Belgium may be kicking this particular can down the road.

It also holds the rotating presidency of the European Council and is apparently more keen on playing the role of mediator. Foreign Minister Hadja Lahbib said recently that Belgium wanted to do more work on "rationalising" what had to be done, and setting emotions aside.

The issue of Palestinian statehood has vexed the international community for decades.

In 1988, the Palestine Liberation Organisation (PLO), the main representative of the Palestinians, first declared the establishment of the State of Palestine. It did not define the borders, though declared Jerusalem as the capital.

In practice, the Palestinians have limited self-government through the Palestinian Authority (PA) in parts of the Israeli-occupied West Bank.

The PA lost control of the Gaza Strip to Hamas in 2007. The UN considers both territories as occupied by Israel and comprising a single political entity.

Israel does not recognise Palestinian statehood and the current Israeli government opposes the creation of a Palestinian state in the West Bank and Gaza. It argues such a state would be a threat to Israel's existence.

The US endorses the creation of an independent Palestinian state alongside Israel - the so-called two state solution to the Israel-Palestinian conflict - but says such a state should only come through direct negotiations between the two sides.

It is not a surprise that Spain has made this announcement today.

Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez - a socialist - has been campaigning for months to try to gain support from European partners for a formal recognition of a Palestinian state.

He hasn't managed to persuade the bigger economies to get on board but has been working particularly closely with Ireland.

Sanchez says the move to recognise a Palestinian state - which will formally be done by Spain's cabinet next week - reflects public opinion in the country, and is also the right thing to do.

Israel's government reacted quickly to the Norwegian and Irish announcements by recalling its envoys to Oslo and Dublin, and Norway's government will have anticipated that.

Oslo's statement twice argues that it is seeking to promote "moderate forces" on both sides in a bid to revive a moribund peace process. There is no love lost between Jonas Gahr Store's centre-left government and the Israeli government.

The Norwegians are highly critical of Israel's settlement policy in the West Bank, and they recognise their peace strategy since the 1993 Oslo Accord has failed.

But Oslo is at pains to condemn the "terrorism and violence from Hamas and other militant [Palestinian] groups" and it talks of a path towards "demobilisation of Hamas" and providing Israel with security guarantees.

Norway has been working with Saudi Arabia in particular towards a broader peace deal and stresses its decision on recognising a Palestinian state is firmly in that context.

For Israel, normalisation of relations with Saudi Arabia was an aspiration that appeared to be on the horizon before the Hamas attacks of 7 October. Oslo wants to make the point here that that kind of prize should be part of a two-state solution.

ReutersCopyright: Reuters

Most of the world already recognises Palestine as a state. Earlier this month, 143 of the 193 members of the United Nations General Assembly voted in favour of Palestine joining the UN, something only states can do.

As of this morning, only nine European countries supported Palestinian statehood and most of those took the decision in 1988 when part of the Soviet bloc. So for Norway, Ireland and Spain to join their number is both rare and significant.

These countries hope not only to signal symbolic support for Palestinians but also to inject some momentum into a political process they hope could help end the fighting.

Many Arab countries say they would help police and reconstruct a post-war Gaza only if the West recognises the state of Palestine as part of that political process.

But most other European countries still believe recognition should come only as part of a long term two-state solution to the conflict.

So Norway, Ireland and Spain are playing a diplomatic card they hope will be picked up by others. But it will not change the reality on the ground.