The traces of blood

The story The Portuguese daily Diario de Noticias ran reports on Monday that sniffer dogs from Leicestershire Constabulary found blood on the wall of the McCanns' apartment at the head height of a child Madeleine's size.

The paper said sniffer dogs which were "looking for DNA [evidence], not blood" were at the same point in the apartment where a previous dog had "sensed death". There were signs of an attempt to wipe the blood away. The revelations were seized upon by some British newspapers.

Significance Anything between crucial and irrelevant. The trace of blood may have nothing to do with the McCanns. The apartment has been let to hundreds of holidaymakers over the years. An attempt to wipe blood off the wall could have been a holidaymaker cleaning up after an accident.

Police sources in Portugal have been unwilling to offer insights into the validity of the story though it is understood that it was given to two respected Portuguese journalists by police in Lisbon, rather than the Algarve.

Maddie died in the flat

The story Diario de Noticias reported: "This evidence [the traces of blood] locates Madeleine's death inside the apartment, but the investigators are still not certain it was murder, despite the fact that forensic experts have revealed that somebody did try to erase the blood traces. The theory most favoured by detectives to explain Maddie's death - now taken as almost certain - is that it involved an accident." The paper said officers believe Madeleine died from "negligence or murder".

It asserted yesterday that intercepted emails and telephone conversations between the McCanns and their friends showed they had information about their daughter's death. Diario alleged that these intercepted phone calls and emails have influenced the police's new theory that Madeleine died in the apartment.

The paper has often been vehemently "anti-McCann", claiming within days of her disappearance that her parents may be culpable.

Significance The claims have led to lurid, emotive headlines such as "Murdered in her apartment". But Portuguese police have insisted that the McCanns are not suspects and that they would be reinterviewed only as part of a second review of all evidence in the case. The allegations pushed the McCanns to make a televised appearance denying their involvement. From the start the Portuguese press has questioned the theory that Madeleine was abducted. The lack of leads appears to have led journalists to return to their suspicions she was murdered. But no evidence has been produced to support this contention.

Friends under suspicion

The story Another paper, 24 Horas, claimed on Tuesday that members of the party who were on holiday with the McCanns when Madeleine vanished, are "under surveillance" in the UK. Diario has also suggested police concerns about inconsistencies between the statements given by the McCanns, three other couples and a single woman who were part of the contingent at Praia da Luz.

The couples are Russell O'Brien (pictured on the front page) and Jane Tanner, both aged 36, from Exeter, Fiona Payne, 34, and her husband, David, from Leicester, and Rachel Oldfield, 36, and her husband, Matthew, from London.

Hitting out at the press speculation for the first time yesterday, Mrs Oldfield said in London: "I think there are some leaks coming from the police because a lot of what I have read recently has been completely untrue.

"It is very hurtful and it is all rather ludicrous. But it is difficult to defend ourselves because the investigation and everything in it is confidential."

Significance As with the casting of suspicion on the McCanns, the assertions being made, particularly in the Portuguese press, are entirely based on unverifiable leaks, ostensibly from the Portuguese police.

The police leaks

The story From the outset, the local police in Praia da Luz, whose working methods are less media-friendly, have been accused by the British press of mismanaging the investigation. They have been accused, among other things, of failing to preserve the crime scene and failure to conduct comprehensive searches of the area quickly enough.

This week unnamed sources "close to the investigation" have provided stories for Portuguese papers, which have been followed up by British journalists. On Saturday, amid intense media interest, it will be 100 days since Madeleine's disappearance.

Significance Are local police trying to set their own agenda?

One respected Portugal-based observer says that the story may have been leaked to the newspapers in an attempt to enable police to gauge the reaction of those, still in Portugal, who they might consider suspects.

A more cynical interpretation is that Portuguese police want to create the impression that their investigation has momentum at a time when British journalists are returning to Portugal to report on the 100-day mark. "It is perhaps no coincidence that as soon as six or seven journalists arrive from Britain that things start to happen," he said.

The sighting

The story A speech therapist last week reported to Belgian police that she was "100 per cent certain" of sighting Madeleine after seeing a couple and a girl at the De Pauze restaurant, a service station in the border town of Tongeren, 80 miles from Brussels. The witness called police from the restaurant but, when she returned to the table, the two adults and the young girl had left - possibly in a black Volvo with Belgian number plates.

Initially this seemed more promising than many other such sightings since Belgian police saw fit to issue a rudimentary computer-generated image of the unshaven Flemish-speaker, said to be in his 40s. The woman, aged about 25, spoke with a southern English accent. The child with them wore a pink dress and was drinking a bottle of strawberry-flavoured Fristi milk drink through a straw. A local detective said he was suspicious about the couple's failure to respond to requests to come forward and DNA tests were subsequently carried out on the milkshake bottle.

Significance So far, none. DNA tests yesterday on the milk drink bottle and straw used by the girl showed no match with Madeleine

"[This] doesn't mean that the presence of Maddie is excluded," Belgian police said yesterday.

The suspect

The story The Portuguese and British police last week made no attempt to hide the latest search of the home of the British expatriate Robert Murat, the only named suspect in the case. Ten detectives, including two from Britain, sealed offhis home, yards from where Madeleine was snatched.

They brought in industrial chainsaws from 7am, to fell trees and clear branches at the rear of the property, and deployed forensic teams. Murat, accompanied by his lawyer, was visibly distraught and confronted police.

Sources in Portugal suggested the involvement of British criminal profilers had prompted the search after they concluded an initial search was inadequate. But the latest search, involving two British cocker spaniel sniffer dogs and scanning equipment, ended as bizarrely as it had begun. Although they were expected to continue work for a week, officers packed up within 24 hours.

Significance Mr Murat remains at large, protesting his innocence, and there are now hints from the police that he is about to be cleared of any involvement.

The dead paedophile

The story Swiss police reveal that Urs Hans Von Aesch killed himself in a Swiss forest near the belongings of Ylenia Lenhard, who remains missing. Earlier, he shot and injured a man in the same forest. Aesch was thought to have been close to Praia da Luz when Madeleine disappeared.