UFO research is up in the air: Can it be scientific?
A few months back, a British anomaly investigation organization announced
the
possible death of UFOlogy. They admitted that failure to provide proof that
UFOs were extraterrestrial craft and a decline in the number of UFO reports
suggests that aliens do not exist after all. Was this the end of “UFOlogy”—the
study of UFOs? “No way! It's alive and well here,” said the U.S. UFOlogists. So
it is. But what is the real status of the study of UFOs?
The UFO research field is having a bit of a crisis these days. Reports come
in by the hundreds. There are not enough people to investigate them. Yet,
decades of UFO research by private and military organizations have resulted in
disappointment for those who surely thought there was something out there to
reveal. Many of the historic figures of UFOlogy are aging or have passed away.
Who is doing the work now? And what exactly are they doing?
The major organization remaining in the U.S. for investigating UFO sightings
is MUFON, the Mutual
UFO Network. MUFON is not in good shape. Their stated mission is to conduct
scientific investigation of UFO reports for the benefit of mankind. But there is
dispute about their ability to actually do that. The current version of MUFON,
according to those observing the situation, is focused on everything
except proper UFO investigation and is nowhere near scientific.
Membership in the organization has fallen off and some local MUFON groups are
disgruntled. Leadership upheavals over the past few years may have been
distracting and overall, they are experiencing a serious case of mission creep.
MUFON consists of chapters covering each state across the country who operate
somewhat independently with members paying dues to the main headquarters. They
promote a scientific method. But do they actually accomplish that goal? Recent
commentators say no, they do not. The focus in local MUFON chapters meetings
these days is decidedly unscientific with talks on alien abduction, conspiracy
theories, human-ET hybrids, hypnotic regression, and repressed memories. That's
a wide range of pseudoscience in one place. It's dragging down the credibility
of the entire subject as well as missing the point of improving actual UFO
investigations.
A comprehensive
two-part piece recently appeared online describing the changing of the guard
at MUFON that is installing its fourth director since 2009. The UFO
Trail blog critiques the current status the field and takes note of the
rising voices in the community, some of whom wish to elevate the investigations
and methods out of the realm of pseudoscience. Author of The UFO Trail, Jack
Brewer, is critical of the current methodology, characterized it as “sham
inquiry”—a label I used to describe amateur paranormal investigation and one he
thought also applied in this case.
The newly named director of MUFON, Jan Harzan, states that UFOlogy is a
science and intends to put a scientific face back on UFO
investigations. Their latest symposium, held in Las Vegas this past July had
the theme “Science, UFOs, and the Search for ET.” The conference featured
presentations from several science professionals (current and former) but did
not provide any blockbuster information or do much to promote science.
"We hope to bridge the gap between science and UFOlogy," said Jan Harzan,
state director of network's Orange County bureau. "They're one in the
same." - Las
Vegas Sun (19 July 2013).
Many skeptical critics would dispute the claim that UFOlogy is a science but
that depends on how you wish to define “science.” A general definition such as a
“systematically collected body of knowledge” is not very descriptive of a
subject area that contains a lot of data but few constructive hypotheses to
provide a framework. The UFO sighting data is mostly witness reports and much of
it is of questionable veracity or too old to be of much value any longer. The National UFO
Reporting Center has a database of reported sightings but I haven’t found
any compelling reports about flaps or trends to make sense of the data. It could
be that I’m not reading cutting-edge UFO research but if there really was a good
report that solidly concluded that there was a pattern and subsequent
explanation for UFO flaps, I would be interested. I would hope I’d have heard of
it, at least from those who have a more in-depth knowledge. But, as with claims
of proof of psychics or hauntings, we only have popular, often biased reports
about particular events from individuals that have a belief to promote. Those
case studies in addition to being problematic in their accuracy (since it’s hard
to confirm many of the events via witnesses), are not robust enough to aid in
explaining the phenomenon.
The discussion coming from a small group of today's modern UFO researchers
suggests that UFOlogy is on the wrong track these days. With a focus on
abductions, conspiracies, and exopolitics/disclosure, the core of the field is
no longer about investigating and identifying what people are reporting to have
seen in the sky.
Antonio Paris runs the API Aerial Phenomenon Investigation
Team, which has a somewhat different focus than MUFON. He wishes to return
to the “nuts and bolts” idea of UFO investigation and get away from the
conspiracy and fringe topics that so often dominate the symposiums and local
MUFON talks.
I asked Antonio what sorts of tools his organization uses to do
investigations. He noted that Internet sites can help identify some of the
man-made objects like aircraft and satellite. MUFON also mentions these tools on
their sites along with astronomical sites to identify bright celestial objects
that are sometimes confusing to people viewing them on the ground. Paris is also
familiar with the shape of many military aircraft and says he can typically
identify them in association with military bases nearby. API has tackled about
300 or so cases but does not pursue those that look like jokes, hoaxes, or give
them nothing to go on. There is no lack of UFO reports. An initial screening to
determine viable cases is necessary to remove those cases not worthy of
investigation or they would be overwhelmed.
MUFON trains their investigators through a manual and an exam. Paris noted to
me that the test requires no specialized skills and many people could
potentially pass it without even looking at the manual. The certification as a
field investigator is a worthwhile effort by MUFON to standardize their methods
and provide a framework for consistency of methods but it's only internal to
MUFON. When each MUFON chapter operates pretty much on its own, inconsistency
and regional differences creep in. Paris told me he is frustrated by the lack of
sharing of information both internally and externally of MUFON noting that an
object of interest can fly over a wide area. Coordination of reports that may be
of the same object would be a worthwhile effort. Science is dependent on sharing
information either through collaboration or peer review of findings. UFOlogy
appears weak in that area having no established journal or even an online
location for filing results.
Even more fundamental to UFOlogy than answering “Is it a science?” is “Can it
ever be scientific?”
UFOs are uniquely difficult to investigate for several reasons. The
observation is fleeting. It may not repeat. It is difficult to reproduce. If it
remains airborne, it leaves no physical evidence behind, only the story of the
witness. The observation is often made in the dark under conditions in which it
is difficult (or impossible) to accurately judge size and distance.
The options for making a UFO into an IFO (identified) are many and various.
Along with the typical reports (satellites, aircraft, flares and planets), we
have more man-made things in the air now than ever: experimental
balloons and aircraft,
weather
balloons, Chinese
lanterns, drones,
dirigibles,
toys
and deliberate
hoaxes. Even people
can become UFOs.
Can UFOs be scientifically investigated?
If by “scientific” we mean methodical, objective observations in
consideration of natural laws, logic and reason, then, yes. I think UFO
investigation can be scientific but the sea change that is needed would be
pretty huge for the field and I don’t know if they can pull it off. As with
paranormal investigators, UFO researchers tend to lean towards the believer
side. That’s what keeps them passionate. But it's also their undoing. A bias
towards belief in a mystery or in alien craft is the first giant misstep in
UFOlogy. The first step for a rejuvenated field to gain credibility is to drop
the default belief that ETs are visiting earth and back up to the very basic
question, “What, if anything, did this witness see?” Begin looking for real
world answers instead of “proof” to support a belief in alien life.
I found a great example of one such sound UFO investigation. Andrew Hansford
recently gave an excellent talk at the 2013 Amazing Meeting about how he
examined a UFO case from Marblehead, MA. You can see his report here.
He was able to glean the best answer and make a solid conclusion from rather few
bits of initial information. He used the tools available to him to seek a
down-to-earth explanation.
I asked CFI fellow and Skeptical Inquirer UFO columnist Robert
Sheaffer his thoughts about scientific investigation of UFOs. It's a bit tricky.
Many have assumed it's possible, he says, but it turns out to be more difficult
than it seems. Sheaffer has documented the several times “rapid response” teams
have been attempted by UFO organizations. It was hoped that by gathering
“reliable witness reports,” and implementing a “rapid response team” to capture
the UFO with professional filming techniques, better evidence could be put forth
for the claim that something worth paying attention to was really occurring.
Rapid response teams turned out to be disappointing, says Sheaffer. Antonio
Paris was part of one such team, the “STAR Team” for MUFON. Millionaire
Robert Bigelow funded the project. “MUFON has been somewhat tight-lipped
about the results,” Sheaffer tells me, “but they are generally conceded to be
hugely disappointing.” It did not give them the results they hoped for.
Sheafffer has written about other “rapid response” efforts prior to the STAR
Team in his Psychic
Vibrations column of July/Aug, 2009 of Skeptical Inquirer. In
1967, J. Allen Hynek proposed and later implemented a national toll-free UFO
Hotline. Experienced screeners manned the lines twenty-four hours a day. They
contacted local police and/or other investigators who would rush to the scene.
Hynek expected this method would yield excellent evidence. Even with the
cooperation of the FBI, years later, it did not produce the expected results.
The National UFO Reporting Center, run by Peter Davenport, has had a telephone hotline since 1974.
In 1977, the French government created an agency called GEPAN to
investigation UFO reports. After producing nothing convincing, official UFO
investigations in France ended in 2004. The British UFO desk was closed in
2009 despite a surge of sighting reports. Nothing was distillable from the
reports.
In the late 1990s, the Los Vigilantes of Mexico City was organized
to respond to a flap of UFO sightings in the area. Cameras were at the ready to
respond to UFO reports on short notice. Sheaffer says, as far as he was aware,
they never obtained anything of significance.
MUFON still gets hundreds of cases a month and there is considerable backlog
of investigations. That’s a hefty work load for volunteers. There is a need to
sort the wheat from the utter chaff but there still are valid means to find out
what people probably saw in the sky. Most reports will have a satisfying answer
if diligently investigated. But that may not happen or the eyewitness may not
accept it.
Paris’s API group is in contact with the new leadership at MUFON and is
encouraged that a more sound approach to the field is on the horizon. This may
be a new dawn for UFOlogy as the old guard dies away and the new, more centered,
serious thinkers take over. UFOlogy is undergoing a transformation once again.
For now, UFOlogy attempts to sound sciencey, but it is not nearly up to the
standards to be called “science.” Can it be science? Only with a wholesale
change in assumptions and approach. Drop the fascination with conspiracies and
abductions—go back to nuts and bolts.
Sharon will be participating in UFOCon14 in Baltimore,
Maryland in 2014.
Remark from Peter 2011 --
Why do a scptic ( = a doubter!) knows always all better? Sceptisme means that you believe in nothing, only in science... They do doubt about all things. I wonder if they do exist?...
And if they believe so in Sciences? Why can't the academics cure diseases , as cancer, AIDS,... Following me, most of the sceptics do have perhaps a high IQ, but their EQ is ZERO...
"It Was Just Another Flight"
