Investigation of UFOs
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The 2013 Canadian UFO Survey marks the 25th anniversary of collecting and analysing Canadian UFO report data by Ufology Research. A quarter century of quality analysis and commentary on the fascinating field of Canadian Ufology is complete.
Since 1989, Ufology Research (formerly Ufology Research of Manitoba) has solicited UFO case data from known and active investigators and researchers in Canada. The goal has been to provide data for use by researchers trying to understand this controversial phenomenon. No comparable studies are currently produced by any other research group in North America. Similar programs exist in several other countries such as Sweden, where UFO report data is analysed by the Archives for UFO Research, and in Italy by Centro Italiano Studi Ufologici.
The 2013 Canadian UFO Survey: Summary of Results
- There were 1,180 UFO sightings reported in Canada in 2013, or about three each day.
- The number of cases in 2013 is the second-highest number of UFO sightings recorded in Canada during the last 25 years.
- The 1,180 UFO cases reported in 2013 is much less than the peak year of 2012, when almost 2,000 reports were recorded. We suspect this was an anomaly, and likely due to many people excited about the so-called “end of the world” in 2012 according to the Mayan Calendar.
- In 2013, Ontario had more than 40 per cent of all Canadian UFO reports.
- In 2013, about 14 per cent of all UFO reports were classified as unexplained.
- The typical UFO sighting lasted approximately 13 minutes in 2013.
Results of this study show that many people continue to report unusual objects in the sky, and some of these objects do not have obvious explanations. Many witnesses are pilots, police and other individuals with reasonably good observing capabilities and good judgement.
Numbers of reported UFO sightings remain high. Several theories for this can be suggested: more UFOs are present and physically observable by witnesses; more secret or classified military exercises and overflights are occurring over populated areas; more people are unaware of the nature of conventional or natural objects in the sky; more people are taking the time to observe their surroundings; more people are able to report their sightings with easier access to the Internet and portable technology; or even that the downturn in the economy is leading to an increased desire by some people to look skyward for assistance.
Although the largest percentage of reported UFOs is simply lights in the night sky, a small number are objects with definite shapes observed within the witnesses’ frame of reference.
Popular opinion to the contrary, there is no incontrovertible evidence that some UFO cases involve extraterrestrial contact. The continued reporting of UFOs by the public and the yearly increase in numbers of UFO reports suggests a need for further examination of the phenomenon by social, medical and/or physical scientists.
The number of UFO reports per year has varied, although there has been a general trend towards a steady increase in yearly UFO report numbers over 25 years, with spikes in some years such as 1993, 2008 and 2013, when there were almost 2,000 reports in one year. Although there may be a perceived notion that UFOs are not being reported with as much frequency as in the past, this is not true. UFOs have not “gone away.” This data clearly contradicts comments by those who would assert that UFOs are a ‘passing fad’ or that UFO sightings are decreasing.
In 2013, Ontario had about 41 per cent of the total number of UFO sightings reported in Canada, the most reports of any province, and exactly the same percentage as in both 2011 and 2012. British Columbia was second, with about 25 per cent of the total. If UFO reporting was simply a factor of population, one would expect percentages of 37 per cent for Ontario and 13 per cent for BC.
Monthly breakdowns of reports during each year tend to show slightly different patterns. UFO reports are generally thought to peak in summer and are at minimum in winter, presumably due to the more pleasant observing conditions during the summer months, when more witnesses are outside. In Canada in 2013, July and August numbers were again high, but report numbers were unusually high in January as well.
An analysis by report type shows a similar breakdown to that found in previous years. The percentage of cases of a particular type remains roughly constant from year to year, with some variations. Proportionally, Daylight Discs increased significantly in 2013, but most cases still were Nocturnal Lights.
Just under two per cent of all reported UFO cases in 2013 were Close Encounters, emphasizing the reality that very few UFO cases involve anything other than distant objects seen in the sky. This is an important statistic, because the current popular interest in abductions and sensational UFO encounters is based not on the vast majority of UFO cases but on the very tiny fraction of cases which fall into the category of close encounters. Speculation on what aliens may or may not be doing in our airspace seems almost completely unconnected to what are actually being reported as UFOs.
The types of sightings vary in 2013 , a summary follows with totals:
NL (Nocturnal Light) – light source in night sky - 631
ND (Nocturnal Disc) – light source in night sky that appears to have a definite shape - 333
DD (Daylight Disc) – unknown object observed during daytime hours - 145
C1 (Close Encounter of the First Kind) – ND or DD occurring within 200 metres of a witness – 9
C2 (Close Encounter of the Second Kind) – C1 where physical effects left or noted – 4
C3 (Close Encounter of the Third Kind) – C1 where figures/entities are encountered – 3
C4 (Close Encounter of the Fourth Kind) – an alleged “abduction” or “contact” experience – 3
The hourly distribution of cases has usually followed a similar pattern every year, with a peak at 2200 hours local and a trough around 0900 hours local. Since most UFOs are nocturnal lights, most sightings will occur during the evening hours. Since the number of possible observers drops off sharply near midnight, we would expect the hourly rate of UFO reports would vary with two factors: potential observers and darkness.
Duration of events is interesting in that it represents the subjective length of time the UFO experience lasted. In other words, this is the length of time the sighting lasted as estimated by the witness. Naturally, these times are greatly suspect because it is known that most people tend to badly misjudge the flow of time. Although an estimate of “one hour” may be in error by several minutes, it is unlikely that the true duration would be, for example, one minute. Furthermore, there have been cases when a UFO was observed and clocked very accurately, so that we can be reasonably certain that UFO events can last considerable periods of time.
The average duration of UFO sightings in Canada in 2013 was 13.5 minutes, similar to 2012 when the average duration was about 15 minutes. These significant lengths of time suggest some simple explanations. Previous analyses have shown that long-duration sightings tend to occur in the early morning hours, from about midnight until 6:00 a.m.
The duration of a sighting is one of the biggest clues to its explanation. Experience in studying UFO reports has shown us that short duration events are usually fireballs or bolides, and long duration events of an hour or more are very probably astronomical objects moving slowly with Earth’s rotation.
In cases where colours of an object were reported by witnesses, the most common colour in 2013 was orange, similar to previous years. The next most common colours were red, white and “multi-coloured.” Since most UFOs are nocturnal starlike objects, the abundance of white objects is not surprising. Colours such as red, orange, blue and green often are associated with bolides (fireballs). Orange is most often associated with the observation of a Chinese lanterns, the launching of which became popular during the past few years. The ‘multicoloured’ designation is problematic in that it literally covers a wide range of possibilities. This label has been used, for example, when witnesses described their UFOs as having white, red and green lights. Many of these are certainly stars or planets, which flash a variety of colours when seen low on the horizon. Aircraft also frequently are described as having more than one colour of light, such as flashing coloured wing lights. However, seen from a distance, aircraft will often be visible only as moving white lights.
The average number of witnesses per case is approximately 2.00. This value has fluctuated between a high of 2.4 in 1996 to as low as 1.4 in 1990. In 2011, the average number of witnesses per case was 1.74, and the value in 2012 remained about the same, at 1.79. In 2013, the average number of witnesses per sighting was 1.71.
This indicates that the typical UFO experience has more than one witness, and supports the contention that UFO sightings represent observations of real, physical phenomena, since there is usually at least one corroborator present to support the sighting.
Witnesses’ descriptions of the shapes of UFOs vary greatly. In 2013, about 54 per cent were of “point sources”—that is, “starlike” objects or distant lights, about the same as previous years. The classic “flying saucer” or disc-shaped object comprised only around five per cent of all UFO reports in 2013, contrary to popular opinion. Even the “triangle” shape, which some ufologists have suggested has supplanted the classic “saucer,” was only five percent of the total in 2013.
The shape of a perceived object depends on many factors such as the witness’ own visual acuity, the angle of viewing, the distance of viewing and the witness’ own biases and descriptive abilities. Nevertheless, in combination with other case data such as duration, shape can be a good clue towards a UFO’s possible explanation.
| Shape | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 |
| Ball/Globe/Round/Orb/Sphere | 186 | 144 | 296 | 148 |
| Fireball | 61 | 61 | 158 | 65 |
| Boomerang/Crescent/Chevron/V/U | 18 | 7 | 24 | 16 |
| Cigar/Cylinder | 35 | 43 | 47 | 22 |
| Disk/Saucer | 33 | 42 | 37 | 55 |
| Irregular | 130 | 97 | 223 | 79 |
| Oval/Egg/Elliptical | 15 | 24 | 30 | 29 |
| Point Source | 440 | 554 | 1076 | 640 |
| Triangle | 42 | 43 | 62 | 58 |
| Diamond | 2 | 1 | 8 | |
| Rectangle | 0 | 3 | 1 | 16 |
The assigning of a Strangeness rating to a UFO report is based on a classification adopted by researchers who noted that the inclusion of a subjective evaluation of the degree to which a particular case is initself unusual might yield some insight into the data. For example, the observation of a single, stationary, starlike light in the sky, seen for several hours, is not particularly unusual and might likely have a prosaic explanation such as that of a star or planet. On the other hand, a detailed observation of a saucer-shaped object which glides slowly away from a witness after an encounter with grey-skinned aliens would be considered highly strange.
The numbers of UFO reports according to strangeness rating show an inverse relationship such that the higher the strangeness rating, the fewer reports. The one exception to this relationship occurs in the case of very low strangeness cases, which are relatively few in number compared to those of moderate strangeness. It is suggested this is the case because in order for an observation to be considered a UFO, it must usually rise above an ad hoc level of strangeness, otherwise it would not be considered strange at all.
The average strangeness rating for UFO reports during 2013 was 3.67, up from the 2012 average of 3.21, where 1 is considered not strange at all and 9 is considered exceptionally unusual. Most UFOs reported are of objects which do not greatly stretch the imagination. Hollywood-style flying saucers are, in reality, relatively uncommon in UFO reports. The overall Strangeness rating of Canadian UFO reports has been sliding slightly over time.
The average Reliability rating of Canadian UFO reports in 2013 was 3.8, down significantly from an average of 4.6 in 2012. In most years, there are approximately the same number of higher quality cases as those of low quality. However, in 2013, more reports had minimal information on the witness, little or no investigation and incomplete data or description of the object(s) observed. Higher reliability cases include actual interviews with witnesses, a detailed case investigation, multiple witnesses, supporting documentation and other evidence. Since data for many cases are taken from websites and second-handpostings, or in fact self-postings, there is usually no significant investigation of UFO sightings. Well-investigated cases likely comprise only a small fraction of all UFO data, a fact that makes posted UFO case data have limited value.
Reliability and Strangeness ratings tend to vary in classic bell-shaped curves. In other words, there are very few cases which were both highly unusual and well-reported. Most cases are of medium strangeness and medium reliability. These are the “high-quality unknowns” which will be discussed in a later section of this study. However, there are also very few low-strangeness cases with low reliability. Low-strangeness cases, therefore, tend to be well-reported and probably have explanations.
UFO data used in this study were supplied by many different groups, organizations, official agencies and private individuals. Since this annual survey began in the late 1980s, more and more cases have been obtained and received via the Internet.
About 32 per cent of Canadian cases in 2013 were reported to the large organization known as the Mutual UFO Network (MUFON), which has a good online reporting system. Traditionally, the lion’s share of reports used as data came through Sightings.com, which has been relaying UFO cases reported through the former Houston, BC, Centre for UFOs (HBCCUFO), with about 32 per cent in 2010 and 35 per cent in 2011, but up to 45 per cent in 2012 and down to 24 per cent in 2013. The decline in 2013 was due to HBCCUFO scaling down its activity.
In 2013, about nine per cent of the total cases were obtained through the private and non-profit National UFO Reporting Center in the USA. Like MUFON, NUFORC has a toll-free telephone number for reporting UFOs and a large sightings list created through voluntary submission of online report forms by witnesses.
About five per cent of all UFO sightings reported in 2013 were sent directly to Ufology Research.
Less than one per cent of all cases came as a result of information obtained through Transport Canada and the Department of National Defence.
It should be noted that the preparation of this Survey is becoming quite challenging. Few UFO investigators or researchers actually submit case data to UFOROM anymore, requiring considerable searching of online sources. And, although many sites post information about UFO sightings, very little actual UFO investigation is being conducted. In fact, it could be said that the science of UFO investigation has nearly become extinct. This does not bode well for an area of study that is under constant criticism by debunkers wishing to prove the unscientific nature of the subject.
In 2013, the percentage of Unknowns was 14.5 per cent. There were 172 Unknowns out of 1,180 total cases in 2013.
If we look only at the Unknowns with a Strangeness of 6 or greater and a Reliability rating of 6 or greater, we are left with 48 high-quality Unknowns in 2013 (about four per cent of the total). This is in line with previous studies, such as USAF Blue Book, which found three to four per cent of their cases were “excellent” Unknowns. As it is, these 48 Canadian cases in 2013 can be reduced further by eliminating those in which investigation is not complete or details not made available for outside evaluation.
It should be emphasized again that even high-quality Unknowns do not imply alien visitation. Each case may still have an explanation following further investigation. And of those that remain unexplained, they may remain unexplained, but still are not incontrovertible proof of extraterrestrial intervention or some mysterious natural phenomenon.
The interpretation of the 172 Unknowns in 2013 is that these cases were among the most challenging of all the reports received. It should be noted that most UFO cases go unreported, and that there may be ten times as many UFO sightings that go unreported as those which get reported to public, private or military agencies. Furthermore, it should be noted that some cases with lower reliability ratings suffer only from incomplete investigations, and that they may well be more mysterious than those on the list of Unknowns. And, above all, these cases are not proof of extraterrestrial visitation.
The increase in the numbers of UFO reports with time likely does not have a simple explanation. It could be related to a growing awareness within the general population that there are agencies which collect UFO reports. It could be that there really are more UFOs physically present in the sky. It could be that the collection of UFO data is becoming more efficient. It could be that there are more private websites allowing or inviting people to report their UFO sightings. While media have been noted as playing a definite role in UFO waves (a national increase in UFO sightings), media coverage of UFO reports has significantly declined over the past decade while the number of reports has risen. Perhaps a cultural factor is at work as well, where “aliens” and UFOs are now well-entrenched within the societal mindset and are accepted as more probable than fiction. This question by itself is deserving of scientific study.
Special thanks to: Chris A. Rutkowski , Geoff Dittman, and Ashley Kircher for their tireless efforts in amassing and disseminating the 2013 Canadian UFO Report. Brought to you by: Ufology Research - Winnipeg, Manitoba, Canada
Chris A. Rutkowski
Data Sources: Yukon UFO, UFO Updates, Para-Researchers of Ontario, National UFO, Reporting Center, Filer’s Files, UFOINFO, UFO*BC, UFOS North West, Alberta UFO Study Group, Mutual UFO Network, Houston, BC, Centre for UFO Research, Ufology Research, Transport Canada, National Defence and the Canadian Forces, YouTube, NOUFORS, PSICan, Sightings.com, GARPAN, Centre d’Études des OVNIs
For further information, contact:
Ufology Research via e-mail: canadianuforeport@hotmail.com
Twitter: @ufologyresearch
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written by Dr. Frank E. Stranges, Ph.D. in 1967:
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