UFO'S of UAP'S, ASTRONOMIE, RUIMTEVAART, ARCHEOLOGIE, OUDHEIDKUNDE, SF-SNUFJES EN ANDERE ESOTERISCHE WETENSCHAPPEN

Earth is our only example of a habitable planet, so it makes sense to search for Earth-size worlds when we’re hunting for potentially-habitable exoplanets. When astronomers found seven of them orbiting a red dwarf star in the TRAPPIST-1 system, people wondered if Earth-size planets are more common around red dwarfs than Sun-like stars.

But are they? Maybe not.

The exoplanet-hunting age arrived when NASA launched the Kepler space telescope in 2009. The mission was a success, and found almost 5,000 exoplanets, with 2,711 confirmed and another 2056 awaiting confirmation. The Kepler mission ended in 2018, and TESS (Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite) took over planet hunting that same year.

Kepler’s initial results suggested that Earth-sized exoplanets in habitable zones were more common around M-dwarfs. But as time has passed, the Kepler sample has come under increased scrutiny.

New research digs into the issue and explains what’s happened since Kepler, and how its data needs a rethink. The paper is “No Evidence for More Earth-sized Planets in the Habitable Zone of Kepler’s M versus FGK Stars.” It’s been accepted into The Astronomical Journal and is currently available on the pre-press site arxiv.org. The lead author is Galen Bergsten, from the Lunar and Planetary Laboratory at the University of Arizona.

“Reliable detections of Earth-sized planets in the habitable zone remain elusive in the Kepler sample,
even for M dwarfs,” the authors write. Astronomers used to think that Kepler had found quite a sizable number of these planets. Different researchers used Kepler’s findings to extrapolate the occurrence rate of these desirable planets. But current research suggests that Kepler’s results weren’t accurate. That means the estimated occurrence rates were inaccurate, too.

Illustration of the Kepler spacecraft. Kepler’s mission is over, but not the discussion about its data.

(NASA/Kepler mission/Wendy Stenzel)

Kepler was meant to focus on Earth-sized planets around Sun-like stars, with preferential long-term monitoring of around one year. One year monitoring would produce more robust data than shorter monitoring, when it comes to measuring the occurrence of these planets. But the spacecraft suffered some mechanical failures which ended that phase of operations. As a result, its survey was interrupted before it could deliver a confident survey of Earth-sized planets in habitable zones.

But the data was all researchers had to work with. This led to estimates of the occurrence of Earth-sized planets extrapolated from Kepler’s data on red dwarfs. A 2014 study suggested that 25% of red dwarfs have super-Earths. And a 2015 study found 156 Earth-size candidates around low mass M dwarfs. The 2015 results arrived at an occurrence rate of 0.16 Earth-size planets around red dwarfs. Since about 75% of the Milky Way’s stars are red dwarfs, that means there’s an enormous number of Earth-size planets around red dwarfs. Could it be true?

Maybe not.

The ESA’s launched their Gaia spacecraft in 2013 and it specializes in measuring stars. It’s focused on astrometry, which measures the positions, distances, and motions of stars. But it also performs photometric measurements of the stars’ luminosity, revealing their temperatures, masses, and ages. It’s better at that than Kepler was.

Artist’s impression of the ESA’s Gaia Observatory.

Credit: ESA

Gaia exposed the inaccuracy in Kepler’s results. “However, updated stellar properties from Gaia have shifted many Kepler stars to earlier spectral type classifications, with most stars (and their planets) now
measured to be larger and hotter than previously believed,” the authors explain.

What astronomers are seeking is the elusive number of Earth-sized planets in habitable zones across all star types. The only reliable way to find it, other than measuring every star and planet, is to extrapolate from a sample. Since Kepler’s sample is now understood to be flawed, it means that previous extrapolations are flawed. Where does that leave us?

This research arrives at new numbers based an both Kepler’s data and Gaia’s data. The new numbers are far lower than initial estimates and extrapolations. “The updated sample’s paucity of Earth-sized habitable zone planet detections means that Kepler offers no evidence supporting an increased number of Earth-sized habitable planets around M dwarfs compared to FGK stars,” the authors write. “When evaluated in instellation, we found a lack of sufficient evidence that would support M dwarfs having more Earth-sized planets than FGK stars at habitable zone instellations.” Instellation is a planet’s proximity to a star.

This figure from the study helps illustrate the results. It clearly shows that there are not more Earth-sized planets around red dwarfs (M dwarfs) than around Sun-like (FGK) stars. The shaded grey region denotes the regime where there are no detections of Earth-sized planets around F type stars. Image Credit: Bergsten et al. 2023.

So Kepler’s early data was not reliable.

There’s still more research to be done before we understand how many Earth-like planets there are, around M dwarfs or around Sun-like (FGK) stars. Red dwarfs are dim to begin with, and a smaller planet doesn’t block much light, making transits difficult to detect.

This research isn’t the last word. As better data rolls in and planet-hunting scientists study it meticulously, they’re bound to arrive at a better understanding.

We’d all like to know how many Earth-sized planets there are in habitable zones. But when it comes to red dwarfs, habitability is not well understood to begin with. Red dwarfs, especially younger ones, emit lots of radiation. It might render planets in their putative habitable zones inhabitable. Their may be no way for them to hold onto their atmospheres.

We can’t talk about red dwarf exoplanet habitability without bringing up red dwarf flaring. Stellar flares could threaten life on red dwarf planets.

Credit: NASA, ESA and D. Player (STScI)

And stars aren’t consistent. Their luminosity changes over time, which means their habitable zones shift over time. Our own Sun used to be fainter, and it’s slowly, inexorably brightening. So getting a star’s age wrong skews everything else.

There are a lot of unanswered questions around Earth-sized exoplanets, optimistic versus conservative habitable zones, red dwarf flaring, and a host of other issues. But one of the basic things astronomers would like to understand is how widespread Earth-sized planets are.

Looks like we’re still waiting to find out.

A classified report detailing the Pentagon’s latest findings in its ongoing investigations into unidentified anomalous phenomena, or UAP, has been delivered to Congress, the U.S. Department of Defense (DOD) has revealed.

The 2023 Annual Report on Unidentified Anomalous Phenomena was presented to Congress by the DoD and the Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI) on Wednesday, October 18, 2023, according to a Pentagon press release issued that same evening.

An unclassified version of the report, required by the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) for Fiscal Year 2022, as amended by the NDAomaly ResoA for Fiscal Year 2023, was also subsequently made available on the website of the All-domain Anlution Office (AARO), the official office within the DoD tasked with investigations into mysterious aerial incursions and other phenomena encountered by U.S. personnel which currently remain unresolved.

Cover page of the 2023 Annual UAP Report, released on October 18, 2023

(Credit: AARO/DoD).

What follows are several of the key findings detailed in the unclassified version of the 2023 Annual UAP Report released late on Wednesday:

291 NEW REPORTS OF UNIDENTIFIED ANOMALOUS PHENOMENA

The latest UAP report primarily documents sightings that occurred between August 31, 2022 and April 30, 2023, with 274 of the reports having occurred during this period, and an additional 17 from previous reporting periods dating as far back as 2019, amounting to a combined total of 291 reports.

As of April 2023, AARO has reportedly been reviewing more than 800 UAP incident reports.

COLLECTION BIASES REMAIN, DESPITE BROADENING SOURCES

The report, while acknowledging the persistence of a “strong but shifting collection bias,” notes that the abundance of UAP reports AARO has received that occurred within restricted military airspace has been tempered somewhat by reports from commercial pilots which show “a more diverse geographic distribution of UAP sightings across the United States.”

However, even the broadening number of reports from commercial aviators AARO has begun to integrate into its dataset still conveys what the report calls a “U.S.-centric collection bias that will grow significantly relative to the rest of the world.”

NO ADVERSE HEALTH EFFECTS ASSOCIATED WITH UAP INCIDENTS

The report says that none of the reports collected between August 2022 and April 2023 indicated U.S. personnel or other witnesses had suffered any adverse health effects resulting from their unexplained encounters.

“ODNI and DoD acknowledge that health-related effects may appear at any time after an event occurs,” the report states, “therefore any reported health implications related to UAP will be tracked and examined if and when they emerge.”

CONCERNING PERFORMANCE CHARACTERISTICS

Some UAP reports involved objects that “potentially exhibited one or more concerning performance characteristics such as high-speed travel or unusual maneuverability,” the report states, raising concerns over possible flight safety issues that may result from UAP encountered by aviators. While acknowledging such safety risks, the report adds that “none of these reports suggest the UAP maneuvered to an unsafe proximity to civil or military aircraft” or posed any other direct threats to any aircraft or their crew and passengers.

NO EVIDENCE LINKING RECENT UAP SIGHTINGS TO FOREIGN ACTORS

The report also states that none of the UAP reports from the period in question have been directly linked to foreign activities by any U.S. adversaries or other state actors.

BETTER DATA IS NEEDED

Insufficient data from various sensors and other collection platforms “can cause observational misperceptions,” the report adds, noting that as better data is collected over time, “most UAP will likely resolve to ordinary phenomena and significantly reduce the amount of UAP case submissions.”

UAP REPORTING IS INCREASING OVERALL

The report states that reports involving unidentified anomalous phenomena are increasing, primarily due to what it characterizes as “deepening federal relationships and AARO’s ability to incorporate new reports into its adjudication and research process.

290 of the most recent batch of reports involved aerial encounters, while just one occurred “in the maritime domain.” There were no space-based UAP sightings during the recent period, nor were there any incidents involving transmedium phenomena that were observed.

AN ABUNDANCE OF SPHERICAL UNIDENTIFIED ANOMALOUS PHENOMENA

Among the most common shapes reported in the recent batch of sightings, about a quarter (25%) involve

Earlier this year during an April 2023 Senate hearing, Dr. Sean Kirkpatrick, Director of the DoD’s All-domain Anomaly Resolution Office (AARO), said at that time that more than half of all UAP reports collected by his Office involved observations of objects characterized as orbs or otherwise spherical objects with white, silver, or translucent coloration.

“That’s what we’re looking for and trying to understand what that is,” Kirkpatrick said during the hearing, shortly before sharing footage obtained by an MQ-9 Reaper Drone in the Middle East in 2022 where a flying object resembling a metallic sphere could be seen passing through the air.

Diagram displaying common morphologies associated with unidentified anomalous phenomena in reports collected between August 2022 and April 2023

(Credit: AARO/DoD).

While more than half (53%) of all sightings provided no details on the shape of the objects that were encountered, 6% of the incidents involved “irregular shapes,” while 4% involved oval-shaped objects, discs and rectangles each comprised 2% respectively, while cylindrical objects and triangles each comprised 1% respectively. An additional 5% of reports involved what were characterized as “Ambiguous Sensor Contact.”

FEWER UAP DISPLAYED LIGHTS

Of the 291 reports from the recent collection period, less than a quarter (21%) possessed lights, while the vast majority (79%) appeared to possess no lights, or at least none were displayed at the time of the observations.

IT’S ALL ABOUT THE DATA

Intriguingly, the report also describes the data collection and analysis process as new UAP reports are acquired, noting that “AARO’s analysts scour multiple classified and unclassified databases to identify any existing data on each UAP case,” adding that investigations prioritize “technical sensor information that yields the highest quantity of pertinent, valuable data for review.”

HIGH SPEED TRAVEL AND OTHER ODDITIES

Based on the ongoing analysis of UAP sightings AARO has collected, the report states that “only a very small percentage of UAP reports display interesting signatures, such as high-speed travel and unknown morphologies.” Currently, most of the sightings AARO has collected involve objects that “demonstrate ordinary characteristics of readily explainable sources,” although a lack of data has prevented a large number of cases from being able to be resolved.

Screenshot from a video filmed off the Baja California coast in 2004 depicting unidentified anomalous phenomena famously nicknamed the “Tic Tac” by U.S. Navy personnel who encountered it

(Credit: DoD).

“For the few objects that do demonstrate characteristics of interest,” the report adds, “AARO is approaching these cases with objectivity and analytic rigor.”

SENSOR CALIBRATION TO HELP RULE OUT KNOWN OBJECTS

Known objects, which include balloons, unmanned aircraft systems (UAVs), atmospheric events and other natural phenomena are all being considered in relation to ongoing sensor calibration efforts which are aimed to help rule out such objects or events, and offer future avenues for pilot training and algorithm development.

DECLASSIFICATION OF “FULL-MOTION VIDEOS” AND MORE

Notably, the report states that AARO is “working to standardize and routinize” a declassification process for the release of data and “full-motion videos,” adding that this process had been employed prior the public display of such data during Congressional hearings held earlier this year.